[4]
”The attacks began in the early morning with a rocket barrage of at least 3,000 rockets launched against Israel and vehicle-transported and powered paraglider incursions into its territory.[24][25] Hamas fighters breached the Gaza–Israel barrier, attacking Israeli civilian communities and military bases as well as a music festival near Re’im,[26][27] resulting in 1,139 deaths – 695 Israeli civilians (including 36 children), 71 foreign nationals, and 373 members of the security forces.[g][28] Approximately 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip, including 30 children, with the stated goal to force Israel to release Palestinian prisoners”
WIKIPEDIA
2023 HAMAS-LED ATTACK ON ISRAEL
WIKIPEDIA
2023 ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR
[5]
”The attacks began in the early morning with a rocket barrage of at least 3,000 rockets launched against Israel and vehicle-transported and powered paraglider incursions into its territory.[24][25] Hamas fighters breached the Gaza–Israel barrier, attacking Israeli civilian communities and military bases as well as a music festival near Re’im,[26][27] resulting in 1,139 deaths – 695 Israeli civilians (including 36 children), 71 foreign nationals, and 373 members of the security forces.[g][28] Approximately 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip, including 30 children, with the stated goal to force Israel to release Palestinian prisoners”
WIKIPEDIA
2023 HAMAS-LED ATTACK ON ISRAEL
”Shocked Israelis woke on the last day of the Jewish high holidays to the wail of sirens as Hamas and Islamic Jihad fired thousands of rockets from Gaza and armed militants broke down the hi-tech barriers surrounding the strip to enter Israel, shooting and taking hostages. Militants in boats also tried to enter Israel by sea.
It was a staggering and unprecedented offensive by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and a catastrophic intelligence failure by Israel – and both will have long-lasting repercussions and consequences. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, declared that Israel was at war and that Palestinians would pay a heavy price.
Militants infiltrated Jewish communities near the border with Gaza, killing and seizing civilians and soldiers. Unverified videos showed terrified Israelis covered in blood, and with hands tied behind their backs, being taken by Palestinian gunmen. Many people rushed to safe rooms in their homes as the carnage unfolded around them.”
THE GUARDIAN
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR: WHAT HAPPENED IN FIRST
FEW DAYS AND WHAT CAUSED THE CONFLICT?
9 OCTOBER 2023
Offensive launched from Gaza represented large failure of Israeli intelligence and is likely to have long-lasting repercussions
What happened on the border between Israel and Gaza on 7 October?
Shocked Israelis woke on the last day of the Jewish high holidays to the wail of sirens as Hamas and Islamic Jihad fired thousands of rockets from Gaza and armed militants broke down the hi-tech barriers surrounding the strip to enter Israel, shooting and taking hostages. Militants in boats also tried to enter Israel by sea.
It was a staggering and unprecedented offensive by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and a catastrophic intelligence failure by Israel – and both will have long-lasting repercussions and consequences. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, declared that Israel was at war and that Palestinians would pay a heavy price.
Militants infiltrated Jewish communities near the border with Gaza, killing and seizing civilians and soldiers. Unverified videos showed terrified Israelis covered in blood, and with hands tied behind their backs, being taken by Palestinian gunmen. Many people rushed to safe rooms in their homes as the carnage unfolded around them.
Hundreds of young people at an all-night dance festival in southern Israel found themselves under fire. “They were going tree by tree and shooting. Everywhere. From two sides. I saw people were dying all around,” said one survivor. Authorities later said that 260 bodies had been recovered.
By nightfall on 7 October, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) estimated there were still 200-300 Palestinian militants inside Israel. There were eight “points of engagement” where the IDF was trying to regain control from militants.
How did Israel respond?
Israel called up army reservists and launched a wave of airstrikes on the tiny strip, which is home to 2.3 million people. Netanyahu warned Palestinians in Gaza to “get out of there now” as he vowed to reduce Hamas hideouts to “rubble”, but there is nowhere for those in the blockaded territory to escape to.
Warplanes targeted several buildings in the centre of Gaza City, including Palestine Tower, an 11-storey building that houses Hamas radio stations.
Israel indicated it may launch a ground invasion and cut off electricity and fuel supplies to Gaza.
Video recorded in Gaza showed a mosque destroyed in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip, and several large buildings in Gaza City in ruins.
Palestinians in Gaza shared images of text messages sent by the Israeli military to people in the Beit Hanoun area in the north of the strip that ordered them to leave their homes before the airstrikes.
How many people were killed and injured on first day? And how many Israelis have been taken hostage?
At least 700 Israelis were killed and about 2,000 people were being treated in hospitals – 19 of them in critical condition – according to reports on 8 October.
The IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said more than 400 Palestinian militants had been killed in southern Israel and the Gaza Strip, and dozens more had been captured.
The Palestinian health ministry said on 8 October that at least 400 Palestinians had been killed, including 20 children, and nearly 2,000 wounded as a result of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza since the day before. Seven people were also killed by Israeli army fire in the West Bank, including a child, it said.
Hamas reportedly took as many as 100 Israelis hostage – both soldiers and civilians, alive and dead.
Why did Hamas and Islamic Jihad launch the attack?
The exact reasons for the attack were not clear, but there had been growing violence for months between Israeli soldiers and settlers and Palestinians in the West Bank. Armed settlers had attacked Palestinian villages; militants in the West Bank had attacked soldiers and settlers, and there had been repeated IDF raids on Palestinian cities.
In the week before the attack, some Jews had prayed inside the compound of al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem’s Old City. The area around the mosque is known to Muslims as Haram al-Sharif and is the third holiest place for Islam after Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia. To Jews, it is known as Temple Mount, and is venerated as the site of the biblical Jewish temple. Jews are not permitted to pray inside al-Aqsa compound; to do so is highly provocative. Hamas has called its current offensive Operation al-Aqsa Deluge.
The longer backdrop is a 16-year blockade of Gaza by Israel and Egypt that has almost destroyed the strip’s internal economy and has caused hardship for the people living there.
Extreme religious nationalists who are part of Israel’s rightwing coalition government have repeatedly called for the annexation of Palestinian territory. There has also been speculation that the offensive could have been encouraged by Iran as a means of scuppering moves by Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel.
Why did the attack take Israel by surprise?
Hamas must have planned this offensive for many months, and it is a mystery why Israeli intelligence appears to have had no idea it was coming.
Israel’s surveillance of Gaza is intense. It monitors activity, communications and daily life via state-of-the-art surveillance equipment, including drones flying over the strip. It also relies on human intelligence via informants, many of whom are blackmailed or otherwise coerced into assisting Israel.
The intelligence failure is monumental, and will shake the Israeli public’s faith in their government and army’s ability to protect civilians.
“All of Israel is asking itself: where is the IDF, where are the police, where is the security?” said Eli Maron, a former head of the Israeli navy, on Channel 12. “It’s a colossal failure; the [defence] establishments have simply failed, with vast consequences.”
What does Hamas hope to gain?
The militant organisation that has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007 has shown the world that it is a force to be reckoned with, but it is hard to see how there can be a positive outcome for Hamas or Gaza from the events this weekend.
Israel is likely to use the full force of its military might to crush militant activity, not just in Gaza but also the West Bank and East Jerusalem. In the process, a huge number of Palestinian civilians are likely to be killed, and homes and infrastructure destroyed.
The hostage-taking will also complicate Israel’s response and gives Hamas a significant bargaining chip. Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier held in Gaza by Hamas for five years, was finally released in 2011 in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
If Iran is involved, it will hope the violence will scupper any deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Does Hamas have the support of ordinary people in Gaza?
Many people in Gaza just want to get on with their lives, free from the blockade and repeated wars and conflicts. They resent the restrictions imposed on them and the fear instilled in them by Hamas rulers.
However, others are driven to take up arms by the lack of hope and the misery that is characteristic of life in Gaza. They see militant action as the only way of asserting themselves and fighting for a better future.
Support for Hamas has not been tested since the last elections in Gaza in 2006.
What has been the international reaction to the Hamas offensive?
There has been overwhelming condemnation of Hamas and support for Israel’s right to defend itself. Joe Biden told Netanyahu that the US “stands with the people of Israel in the face of these terrorist assaults … My administration’s support for Israeli’s security is rock solid and unwavering.”
The UN security council held an emergency meeting on Sunday to discuss the crisis. Meanwhile, UN peacekeeping forces have been deployed along the Lebanon-Israel border to “maintain stability and help avoid escalation”.
The Egyptian government said it was in talks with Saudi Arabia and Jordan to try to find a way to defuse the crisis. Egypt has been heavily involved in brokering ceasefires in the past.
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”On October 7, Hamas launched a massive military operation into Israeli territory. The shooting of thousands of rockets into Israel was followed by an attack by land, air and sea, with fighters penetrating deep into territory under Israeli control. They attacked military installations and temporarily took over various settlements. The death toll among Israelis has exceeded 1,200, including more than 120 soldiers; dozens of Israeli hostages were also taken into the Gaza Strip.”
ALJAZEERA
ANALYSIS: WHY DID HAMAS ATTACK NOW AND
WHAT IS NEXT?
11 OCTOBER 2023
On October 7, Hamas launched a massive military operation into Israeli territory. The shooting of thousands of rockets into Israel was followed by an attack by land, air and sea, with fighters penetrating deep into territory under Israeli control. They attacked military installations and temporarily took over various settlements. The death toll among Israelis has exceeded 1,200, including more than 120 soldiers; dozens of Israeli hostages were also taken into the Gaza Strip.
The planning of the operation took somewhere between a few months and two years, per different accounts from Hamas leaders. The depth and magnitude of the attack were unprecedented and took Israel by surprise. It was a reaction to changing regional dynamics and growing Israeli aggression.
While Hamas may appear to have fulfilled its declared short-term goals of deterring Israeli violations of Al-Aqsa Mosque and taking hostages to bargain for the release of Palestinian political prisoners held in Israeli jails, it does not appear to have a long-term end game. A heavy-handed response by Israel is ongoing – already claiming more than 950 Palestinian lives – but sooner or later it will have to end with mediation.
Why did Hamas attack now?
Hamas’s move was triggered by three factors. First, the policies of the far-right Israeli government enabling settler violence in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem led to a sense of desperation among Palestinians and growing demands for a reaction. At the same time, the rising tensions in the West Bank caused by these policies necessitated the shift of Israeli forces away from the south and into the north to guard the settlements. This gave Hamas both a justification and an opportunity to attack.
Second, the Hamas leadership felt compelled to act due to the acceleration of Arab-Israeli normalisation. In recent years, this process further diminished the significance of the Palestinian issue for Arab leaders who became less keen on pressuring Israel on this matter.
If a Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal had been concluded, it would have been a turning point in the Arab-Israeli conflict, which may have eliminated the already weak chances of a two-state solution. This was also part of Hamas’s calculations.
Third, Hamas was emboldened after it managed to repair its ties with Iran. In recent years, the movement had to reconsider the political position it assumed in the wake of the Arab Spring in 2011, in opposition to Iran and its ally, the Syrian regime.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has said that he was personally involved in improving the relations between Hamas and Damascus. A Hamas delegation visited Damascus in October 2022 and its political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh travelled to Beirut in April and Tehran in June. Just last month, Nasrallah hosted the Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Ziad al-Nakhalah and the deputy chief of Hamas’s political bureau Saleh al-Arouri.
Will there be a united front around Hamas?
Iran has denied direct involvement in Hamas’s operation but it has expressed support for it. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general Yahya Rahim Safavi said “we support this operation, and we are sure that the resistance front also supports this issue”.
However, Hamas’s realignment with the “resistance axis” does not necessarily mean there will be a united front on the ground confronting Israel. Hezbollah, for example, has not joined the fight. Currently, domestic politics in Lebanon are not conducive to a conflict with Israel, which is holding the Lebanese group back.
What Hezbollah is trying to do is to deter the Israeli army from going too far in its revenge against Hamas in Gaza, hence it is increasing the pressure on the Lebanese border. Its shelling of Israeli positions is most probably meant to have a psychological effect than a military one. It has also chosen not to overreact in relation to the killing of three of its members by Israeli bombardment.
However, both Israel and Hezbollah are on alert and tensions are high, which means miscalculations can happen.
What is Hamas’s end game?
Three days into Hamas’s surprising and overwhelming attack, it is not clear what its end game is and what it can do to reap long-term benefits. Its priority has seemed to be to take both military and civilian hostages to help deter aggressive Israeli retaliation and later exchange them for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
However, Israel does not appear to be deterred. Hamas spokesperson Abu Ubaida has said that Israeli bombardment has killed four Israeli citizens held in Gaza. He has also warned that the movement will start killing hostages if Israel strikes civilian homes in Gaza without warning; this might backfire against Hamas if implemented.
The Hamas leadership has said that the objectives of the attacks are ending “Israeli violations”, securing the release of Palestinian prisoners, and “returning to the project of establishing a state”. Hamas may be able to secure a prisoner swap deal with Israel, although, in the past, many of those released from Israeli prisons had been quickly rearrested. But the group does not have a clear roadmap for moving forward on “establishing a state” and it cannot have one separately from the Palestinian Authority in the occupied West Bank.
What is next?
Israel has struggled to recover from the attack. It has intensified its bombardment of the Gaza Strip and announced a total blockade on the coastal enclave, turning off electricity and blocking humanitarian aid. Netanyahu’s government was already facing domestic turmoil before the attack due to its judicial reforms; its stability will now be tested even further.
Israel will have to decide whether to undertake a ground invasion and if it is worth the military and political costs. Whether it proceeds with it or not, sooner or later its military operation, including the excessive bombardment of the strip, will have to come to an end. At that point, Israel will have to ask for Egypt to mediate some kind of conclusion of this escalation and a deal to exchange prisoners.
When the Israeli assault ends, Hamas, which has gained more legitimacy in Gaza and the West Bank with its operation, will also face the challenge of translating it into policies and governance that would serve the Palestinians in the long term.
The United States, for its part, will have to put its normalisation mediation plans on hold for now. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was expected in Israel and Saudi Arabia later this month to discuss normalisation talks, but his plans have changed and now include a visit to Jordan.
Given the current public mood in the Arab world after the Gaza attack, it would be too complicated to advance talks on a Saudi-Israeli deal. Most probably, these talks will be put on the shelf by the Saudis in the short term but not necessarily fully cancelled.
These developments work in Iran’s favour. With the progress of Arab-Israeli normalisation halted, Tehran can now pressure the US into re-entering a nuclear deal of some kind that would take some of the sanctions pressure off the Iranian economy.
Whatever mediation happens between Israel and Hamas eventually, it is unlikely to address the root causes of the conflict. There does not seem to be any political will within Israel to address issues like the imprisonment of Palestinians, the freezing of Palestinian funds, the dire socioeconomic conditions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, or the continuing settlement expansion. This means the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will continue to fester and produce cycles of violence.
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